19TH REGIONAL FORUM ON SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION IN CENTRAL AFRICA (PRESAC-19)

About PRESAC-19

Central Africa is one of the regions of the world most severely and diversely affected by (adverse effects of) climate change, with temperatures rising above the global average, increasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns, and a more rapid rise in sea levels in the Gulf of Guinea. Even though the region has contributed virtually nothing to trigger climate change, it is experiencing its consequences. The manifestation of these stress factors and climate shocks, as well as the adaptive capacity of states and communities, varies considerably across the region, depending on the high levels of social vulnerability, political instability, and poverty. Indeed, according to the Climate Vulnerability Index 2022, three (03) of the nine most vulnerable countries in Africa are in Central Africa.

Rising temperatures, heavy rainfall, and rising sea levels, with their corollaries in terms of flooding, drought, coastal erosion, and landslides, are manifesting themselves in different ways in the region, with definite repercussions on the way of life of populations, particularly the most vulnerable. To better manage these different risks, it is necessary to promote the scientific knowledge required for decision-making, while at the same time strengthening operational systems for risk prevention and management. The Regional Forum on Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Central Africa (PRESAC) is a platform contributing to enhance resilience to hydro-climatic disasters in the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) region.
At the Central African level, this initiative is aligned with the ECCAS Medium-Term Indicative Plan (2021- 2025), key regional agricultural and environmental policies and strategies, including: (i) the ECCAS Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy, (ii) the ECCAS Regional Common Agricultural Policy to 2040 and the Regional Agricultural Investment, Food Security and Nutrition Program (2024-2028). This platform will serve to build capacity and enhance the expertise of stakeholders (regional and national) to better characterize, interpret, analyze, forecast and communicate effectively on hydro-climatic risks.
Comprising climate experts, media players and sectors sensitive to climate impacts, the forum will analyze national, regional and global climate information, and to produce and exchange seasonal forecasts in the ECCAS region and elsewhere. Through exchanges and interactions with users and sectoral players, the forum explores the possible uses of information derived from hydro-climatic forecasts, and assesses the possible implications for socio-economic sectors such as agriculture, integrated water resource management, health and disaster risk reduction.

Since its inception, PRESAC has provided the region with an authentic and reliable source of high-quality climate information. This information is developed on the basis of regional and local needs, while taking into account available capacities. Over the years, user interest has grown, with more active and numerous participation in forum sessions. This user participation has enabled the process to evolve, ensuring the sustainability and refinement of climate services for decision-makers and policy-makers.
Under the High Patronage of the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Cameroon, the African Union Commission (AUC) and ECCAS through its specialized institution, the Climate Application and Prediction Centre (CAPC-AC), and in collaboration with the African Centre for Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD), with the support of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and other partners, are organizing the nineteenth Central African Seasonal Climate Prediction Forum (PRESAC-19).


PRESAC-19 scheduled from September 09 to 13, 2024 in Douala, Cameroon, will have as its theme: “Development of Services for Climate Risk Resilience of Central African Socio-Economic Sectors”.
This edition of PRESAC is organized with the financial support of the 11th European Development Fund through the Climate Services and Related Applications Program (ClimSA), as part of the collaborative agreement with the AUC to implement the ClimSA program in Africa. This forum is part of the preparatory activities for the demonstration phase of the institutional and operational capacities to fulfill the mandatory functions of a Regional Climate Centre (RCC) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) by the CAPC-AC. It contributes to the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services by developing, disseminating and facilitating the use of climate forecasting products. The edition will provide the opportunity to integrate for the first time the production of Hydro-Climatic information, which will bring together national and regional experts in Climate and Hydrology in order to enhance co-generation of the regional forecast of Hydro-Climatic character in Central Africa.

PRESAC-19 OBJECTIVES :

The 19th edition of PRESAC aims to:

a. Train experts from the region’s NMHSs in seasonal forecasting tools, methods and products.
b. Share lessons learned and experiences in the use of hydro-climatic information during the MAM and AMJ 2024 seasons.
c. Produce and disseminate Hydro-Climatic forecasts for the October 2024 to January 2025 season at national and regional levels, potential hazards and impacts as well as proposed advisories for water, health, disaster risk and agricultural measures in the region to build resilience.
d. Adapt hydrological and climatic products to the needs of users in the region.

e. Identify gaps and areas for improvement in the interaction between JRCs, national meteorological and hydrological services, disaster risk managers and humanitarian agencies
f. Exchange with stakeholders from the health, water, risk management and agricultural management sectors participating in the forum on hazards, potential impacts, updating contingency plans, and their implementation.

EXPECTED OUTCOMES :

  • Capacities of NHMS national experts are strengthened in tools and methods for developing, understanding, and interpreting seasonal hydro-agro-climatic forecasts,
  • Agro-climatic and hydrological forecast information and a summary note of specific risks and actions to be taken for the socio-economic sectors of the Central African region for the OND and NDJ 2024-25 season are produced;
  • Hydrological and agro-climatic products are adapted to user needs for more effective, targeted and amplified use;
  • Collaboration between disaster risk management agencies, humanitarian agencies, national meteorological services, and user interface platforms strengthened;
  • Experiences, lessons learned, and best practices in early warning and early action in the region are shared.

End of Forum Group Picture

AGENDA

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Day 01: September 09, 2024
Date&Time(UTC) Activities Facilitator
08:30-09:00 am Registration of Participants AUC
SESSION 0: OPENING CEREMONY
09:00-09:30 am Opening remarks by: Representatives (ACMAD, CAPC-AC, DiMet Cameroon) AUC
09:30-10:15 am Current state of climate in the Central African region CAPC-AC / ACMAD
10.15am-10.45am Group photo / Coffee break
SESSION I:Review and performance evaluation of seasonal forecasts MAM and AMJ 2024
10:00 -11:30 Performance of National and Regional Forecasts ACMAD; CAPC-AC; Member States
Assessment of past and present regional and global climatic conditions
Introduction to the new methods and tools for seasonal performance assessment
SESSION II: Production of seasonal forecasts: methods, tools and data
11:30am-12:00pm Method and tools: Introduction to the ACMAD approach to seasonal forecasting ACMAD
12:00 am-1:00 pm State of global climatic conditions and their likely impacts on the Central African region; (Identification of Analogous years, Analysis of current status of cumulative rainfall at station level, …) ACMAD; CAPC-AC; Member States
1:00 pm – 2:30 pm Lunch break
SESSION II: Production of seasonal forecasts: methods, tools and data (Continued)
2:30 pm – 5:30 pm Analysis of Climate Variability and Trends
  • Identification and selection of dry and wet years by station
  • Global composite SST analysis for dry and wet years
  • Composite analysis of dry and wet year precipitation by country
ACMAD; CAPC-AC; Member States
11:30-13:00 Coffee Break and End of Day 1
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Day 02: September 10, 2024
SESSION II: Production of seasonal forecasts: methods, tools and data (Continued)
08:30-10:30 am Statistical downscaling for seasonal forecasts (Demo)
  • Data preparation for statistical forecasts
  • Generating and analyzing statistical forecasts with CPT (Demo)
ACMAD; CAPC-AC;
10:30-11:00 am Coffee break
11:00 am-1:00 pm Statistical downscaling for seasonal forecasts (Practical)
Generation and analysis of statistical forecasts (CPT) based on station data
ACMAD; CAPC-AC; Member States
1:00pm-2:30pm Lunch break
2:30pm-4:00pm Statistical downscaling for seasonal forecasts (Practical session) – Continued ACMAD; CAPC-AC; Member States
4:00 pm – 5:30 pm Analysis of Long-Range Forecast products from Global Forecast Center model outputs
Analysis of individual / Multi-Model and Ensemble models
ACMAD; CAPC-AC;
5:30pm-6:00pm Coffee Break and End of Day 2
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Day 03: September 11, 2024
08:30-10:00 am Production of national seasonal forecasts and regional consensus forecasts
– Presentation of national and regional forecasts
– Discussion and consolidation of the regional consensus forecast
ACMAD; CAPC-AC; Member States
10:00-10:30 am Coffee break
11:00 am-1:00 pm Plenary session: Climate-Hydro panel discussion All
1:00 pm – 2:30 pm Lunch break
2:30 pm – 3:30 pm Finalization of forecasts ACMAD; CAPC-AC; Member States
3:30 pm – 5:30 pm Drafting of PRESAC 19 Final Press release
5:30-6:00 pm Coffee Break and End of Day 3
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Day 04: 12 September 2024
Time Activity Facilitator
Registration of Participants
SESSION III: User Engagement
Plenary Session:
Climate Services as a Decision Support Tool: exploring its Impact on transforming data into Actionable Information and Knowledge.
ACMAD / Prof. Matazu
Plenary Session (Ctnd):
Users Feedback (success stories and challenges):Needs and Experiences uptaking and applying Climate Services
ACMAD/AUC and Users
10:00-10:30 am UIP Sectoral Breakout Session:
  • Discuss the Forecast Products and proffer socio-economic advisories for the 2024 Season
  • Group reporting of the socio-economic implications and advisories proffered.
All
Plenary Session (Ctnd):
Collation of Sectoral Reports and Integration in the PRESAC 2024 Outlook
All
5:00-5:30pm Coffee Break and End of Day 04

Contact

For more inquiries, please contact this following link: contact@acmad.org