March 04 – 08, 2024



About PRESAC-18

The Regional Climate Outlook Forum on Seasonal for Central Africa edition 2024 is a platform that brings together climate experts, media, and stakeholders from sectors sensitive to climate impacts to analyze national, regional, and global information, produce and exchange seasonal forecasts to ensure resilience to disasters in Central Africa.

Through exchanges and interactions with users and sectoral actors, the forum evaluates the implications of the forecast on socio-economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, water management, and disasters) and explores possible uses of the forecast. The forum strengthens links and networks between climate service providers and user sectors. It also serves as a mechanism to accelerate the training of meteorological service agents and users on the value chain of climate service, exchange and propose necessary reforms to ensure good governance and quality of climate services in the region.

The Center for Climate Application and Prediction for Central Africa (CAPC-AC), under the Climate Services and its Applications (ClimSA) program, with the support and coordination of the African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), and other partners, is organizing the eighteenth forum on seasonal climate forecasts in Central Africa (PRESAC-18).

PRESAC-18 will take place from March 4th to March 8th, 2024, under the theme: “Climate Services to Strengthen Resilience to Disasters in Central Africa.”


The overall objective of the forum is to contribute to strengthening the resilience of the populations of the Central Africa in the face of climatic hazards during the period March-April-May season. This is done through training, production of forecasting, interaction with users / decision makers and communication during the forum.

The specific objectives are to:

  • Produce and disseminate consensus seasonal climate forecasts for the countries and sub-region valid from March to May 2024 and from April to June 2024, along with potential hazards and impacts, as well as proposed measures to strengthen resilience for water management, health, disaster risks, and agriculture stakeholders in the region;
  • Exchange with stakeholders from health management, water management, disaster risks, and agriculture participating in the forum on hazards, potential impacts, updating contingency plans, and their implementation;
  • Discuss and share with meteorological service directors and permanent representatives of countries to the WMO on the progress of project activities as well as validation of this year’s work program.


  • Discussed or established user interfaces (DRR-Climate, Health-Climate, Agriculture-Climate);
  • Statement on climate outlook provided
  • Organized interaction with users and media
  • Directors of meteorological services are briefed on project activities and the new program is validated
  • Climate experts and user sector representatives trained


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Day 1: March 04, 2024
Time Activity
08h30-09h00 Registration

09:00 – 09:30
Official opening ceremony of the forum
Opening remarks of the Representative of DG ACMAD
Opening remarks by the representative of ECCAS
Opening Statement by AUC Representative

09:30 – 10:15
Current State of Climate over Centrale Africa Countries
  • State of ocean: observed and projected -ENSO Status, equatorial Atlantic
  • Precipitation anomalies (last 90, 30, 10, 7 days)
  • Evolution of ITF
  • State of Onset of Agricultural Season in Centrale Africa
10:15 – 10:45 Coffe-Break
SESSION I: Review and Performance Assessment of the MAM, AMJ 2023 Seasonal Forecast

Performance of National(CAMEROON ,GABON…) and Regional Forecasts(CAPC-CA)
Assessment of past and present regional and global climatic conditions
Introduction to the new methods and tools for seasonal performance assessment
SESSION II: Generation of the Seasonal Forecast: Methods, Tools and Data

Method and tools: Introduction to the ACMAD’s 9-Steps Approach for Seasonal Forecasting

Status of global climate drivers and their likely impacts on the within Gulf of Guinea region
  • Identifying Analog years
  • Analysis of cumulative daily precipitation by station

Lunch break
SESSION II: Generation of the Seasonal Forecast: Methods, Tools and Data (Ctnd)

Analysis of climate variability and trends for target seasons
  • Identifying similar years selection of dry and wet years by station
  • Overall SST composite analysis for dry and wet years
  • Composite analysis of dry and wet year precipitation by country
17h00-17h30 Coffee Break and End of Day 1
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Day 2: March 05, 2024
08h30-10h30 Digital Applications for Climate Services (CLIMTAG, MyDewetra, Mukau)
10:15 – 10:15 Coffe-Break
SESSION II: Generation of the Seasonal Forecast: Methods, Tools and Data (Ctnd)

Analysis of climate variability and trends for target seasons
  • Data preparation for statistical
  • Generation and analysis of statistical forecast using CPT
13h00-14h30 Lunch Break
14h30-16h00 Statistical Downscaling for Seasonal Forecasting (Cntd)

Analysis of LRF products from GPCs
  • Single model analysis
  • Multi Model / ensemble analysis
17h00-18h00 Coffee Break and End of Day 2
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Day 3: March 06, 2024

Production of national ( Gabon, Angola, …) seasonal forecast and regional consensus forecast
  • Forecasts by country and region
  • Discussion and consolidation of the regional consensus forecast
10h00-10h30 Coffee-Break
10h30-13h00 Plenary session: Climate-Agro-Hydro experts discussion
13h00-14h30 Lunch Break
14h30-15h30 Forecasts Finalization
15h30-17h30 Drafting the statements
17h30-18h00 Coffee Break and End of Day 3


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